2011 Investment Banking Analyst Bonuses: Is the World Slightly Less Flat?

Banks seem to announce bonuses later and later each year, and for good reason: with the economy in worse shape each time around (OK, maybe things improved slightly in 2010?) no one wants to be the first to commit to real numbers.

And while the US and Europe came very close to the brink of bankruptcy over the past year, banks themselves remained afloat – so they had enough money to award bonuses.

The good news is that even Citi and UBS were able to pay bonuses this year, and that my predictions a few months ago were on the low side.

But the bad news is that the actual numbers weren’t too much higher – and they won’t be much better next year, either.

The Cold, Hard Numbers

Money, Hours, Models, Bottles: Investment Banking in New York, California, and Everywhere In Between

“Are you guys even in the office past 8 PM? Whenever I call no one’s there.”

“New York is hella lame, people are so much better out here.”

“If you say ‘hella’ again I’m going to make you pay for the bottles next time – and maybe the models too.”

“Fine, I’ll do some research and see what I can send over. NY is still overhyped, though.”

No, it’s not another short story (don’t worry, the finale of Cold Call to Closed Deal is coming up soon) – it’s a banker from NYC and one from San Francisco talking to each other.

And you read that headline correctly: today you’ll learn how banking differs in different regions of the US rather than going off on adventures to distant lands.

As one reader pointed out a while back, “Hearing about all these different countries is great, but what about how banking is different on the east coast vs. west coast and everywhere in between?”

2011 Investment Banking Bonus Predictions: Is the World Flat?

The World Is Flat was released in 2005, but the title applies perfectly to this year’s investment banking bonuses: just swap in “bonus” for “world.”

While we saw the apocalypse and bonus meltdowns in 2008 and 2009, 2010 brought us recovery and higher bonuses.

The economy was better, banks were hiring again, and we had crawled our way out of the recession… or had we?

If this year’s investment banking revenue is any indication, that “recovery” was overblown – because this year’s numbers will be flat, flat, and more flat if my magic 8-ball and Excel spreadsheet are even half-correct.